Episode 27: This is why Israel as an ethno-nationalist state, won’t last beyond the 2030s | Iyad el-Baghdadi | UNAPOLOGETIC (Full)

Author, thinker and activist Iyad el-Baghdadi joins us on this episode of UNAPOLOGETIC to break down the impact of Israel’s war in Gaza and its wider consequences for the region.

We explore Baghdadi’s hypothesis on whether Israel can survive as a Jewish supremacist state beyond the 2030s and whether a Palestinian state is still viable. 

We also discuss what the Arab response to Trump’s Gaza proposal reveals about regional politics. How has Israel’s genocide reshaped alliances, including Saudi-Iran relations, Egypt’s role and the UAE’s stance? What kind of normalisation is possible now, and how does it differ from the pre-Gaza war landscape?

Baghdadi also reflects on his own exile from the UAE, the fragility of Arab regimes, and Mohammed bin Salman’s vision for Saudi Arabia. Is the crown prince building a new regional order, and what is the opportunity cost of his ambition?

Baghdadi has also co-authored of The Middle East Crisis Factory and is the founder of the Kawaakibi Foundation

UNAPOLOGETIC is Hosted by Ashfaaq Carim

Chapters

• 0:00 Intro
• 2:53 Why Israel won't last beyond 2030s
• 14:20 Reason 1 - Israel's high-value elites are leaving
• 24:00 Reason 2 - IDF has a skills and replenishment problem
• 27:40 Reason 3 - Unsinkable aircraft carrier
• 31:10 Reason 4 - Israel's cultural relationship with the West
• 35:10 Reason 5 - Arab Unity
• 39:00 Arab states and the US
• 45:47 Arab states and Israel
• 54:45 How a Palestinian exodus will blow back on Israel
• 1:01:30 Is bin Salman’s vision for Saudi Arabia sustainable?
• 1:15:10 What happens between Syria and Israel?
• 1:30:00 Why Iyad needed to leave the UAE
• 1:37:30 Final thoughts